Impact of aging in long-run economic growth: an analysis based on patterns of consumption, labor market, age structure, and relationships about economic dependency of the population: Bogota (Colombia) 1985 – 2015

2017 edition

Romel Rodriguez Hernandez

The doctoral research proposed, based on the definition, current context and implications of aging as a recent phenomenon, aims to determine the impact of aging on the potential economic growth of Bogotá (long-term), under the premise of active aging, whose is involving a continuous and dynamic participation of the elderly process in social, economic, cultural and spiritual facts, despite of losing sight of the heterogeneity that exists in the processes of aging between people according to their environment and formation.

In fact, the importance of the proposed doctoral research exposed here is to examine the impact of aging on potential economic growth in Bogota, based on specifc analysises that disaggregates the relative weight of the adult population by locality and that involves its socioeconomic facts, and the conecction of these with skills in labor and academic topics.  The information used is obtained on the availability of census information and surveys of patterns of consumption and expenditure in households where people older than 60 years are involved. It aims to articulate the pillars of Bogotá’s economic growth in the long term (as a planning processs as sustainable vision, coordination, financing, connectivity, productivity, quality of life) with aging, including the inherent economic and social policy, in the route of a emphasis of aging as long-term determinant factor (this importance in progress) on the potential economic growth of Bogota (in addtion to the long-term path).

The research strategy address five areas on which aging as causation is involved to be a fact to explain the long-term economic growth:

A. Aging and Labor Market in Bogotá. The impact of aging on the supply of labor, the composition and productivity of the economically active population, and its impact on long-term potential economic growth in Bogotá

B. Aging and identification of patterns of consumption in different groups according to ranges of age in (relative weigh). Quantification of the impact of a progressive increase in the relative weight of the population over 60 years of age in the pattern of consumption of the population at a global level, aimed at measuring changes in consumption and investment decisions of individuals, and their impact on Long-term potential economic growth in Bogotá.

C. Aging and establishment of relations of economic dependence. Impact of releasing resources, which are associated with a young population structure, in particular in health and education, and leading to a reinvestment of education in young adults.

D. Aging and pension liabilities. Long-term impact of aging on pension liabilities, and their impact on Bogotá’s long-term potential economic growth.

E. Aging and economic growth. Long-term impact of aging on per capita income, based on the composition of the economically active population, and how the aging of labor affects labor productivity.